“A successful COP28 is not about a single individual or nation, but the collective will and concerted efforts of all countries in these negotiations” – Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, former UN Climate Envoy.
The UAE COP28 Presidency aimed to "bridge the gap between ambition and action" by focusing on four key paradigm shifts: fast-tracking an equitable energy transition, transforming climate finance, prioritising nature and human well-being in climate action, and promoting an inclusive COP. These shifts were outlined in a letter to the Parties in July 2023, emphasising the urgency and significance of achieving meaningful and practical solutions to climate change.
The COP28 strategy also committed strongly to inclusivity and representation, stating that a goal of the conference was to “elevate, profile and support the leadership, decision-making, and resourcing of women, Indigenous Peoples, youth, people of determination, subnational actors, and faith-based organisations, among others”. Through this inclusive and collaborative approach, COP28 aspired to generate a more comprehensive and effective response to the challenges of climate change.
The COP has now concluded with a landmark agreement signalling a global transition away from fossil fuels, hailed as a victory for all nations and peoples, pulling the event back from the brink of failure earlier in the conference when all reference to fossil fuel “phase out” was dropped completely from the Global Stocktake Text.
“We will not sign our death certificate. We cannot sign on to a text that does not have strong commitments on phasing out fossil fuels” – Cedric Schuster of Samoa, the chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, 11 December 2023.
Despite this welcome incremental change, substantial finance and action gaps persist, within both the mitigation and adaptation agendas. Climate resilience stands as a multifaceted response to the complex and evolving challenges posed by climate change. Recognising the intricate interplay of different elements, it becomes imperative to explicitly acknowledge the interconnectedness of key actions—mitigation, adaptation, development, and addressing loss and damage. These components collectively form a comprehensive strategy to build true climate resilience on a global scale.
Within this complex framework, mitigation strategies act as proactive measures to limit the worst impacts. Simultaneously, adaptation efforts tailor responses to the changing climate, ensuring that communities, ecosystems, and economies can adjust in the face of evolving conditions. Development initiatives can contribute to resilience by fostering sustainable practices and enhancing the capacity of communities to withstand climate-related challenges.
Crucially, the framing extends to early and anticipatory action - a forward-looking, proactive approach to climate disasters. Early and anticipatory action transcends the reactive paradigm, emphasising the importance of preparedness and early response to potential climate hazards. By foreseeing and addressing risks before they escalate, early action helps in fortifying communities against the worst impacts of a changing climate.
Urgent action and coordinated finance across all countries and sectors, reaching and supporting frontline communities, is now needed. The lack of integration will pose challenges to achieving a future where all can thrive. This article aims to provide an overview of the most relevant announcements from COP28 on the scaling up of early warning and early action (EWEA).
The Adaptation Agenda and the Role of EWEA
During COP28, the Presidency's emphasis on Relief, Recovery, and Peace, particularly on December 3rd, reflected a concentrated effort to address the tangible impacts of climate change in vulnerable states. This approach builds on the COP27 Presidency's commitment, targeting areas severely affected by climate change and intertwined with security, development, and conflict issues. Analysis by the International Crisis Group and the Centre for Disaster Protection has highlighted the disproportionately low climate finance received by highly vulnerable countries in addressing these complex challenges, making it almost impossible to fend off the worst outcomes culminating from these combined stressors.
The imperative for communities to receive prompt and effective adaptation measures in order to address the challenges posed by a rapidly changing climate has been widely acknowledged. It is with a measure of concern, however, that we observe the nuanced and somewhat limited language on adaptation emerging from COP28.
“We are living through climate collapse in real time – and the impact is devastating” – UN Secretary-General António Guterres, 30 November 2023.
Regrettably, the outcomes of COP28 fall short of delivering a clear and robust plan, leaving us with somewhat ambiguous provisions for a work programme (Outcome of the first Global Stocktake, Decision CMA.5) designed to assess global adaptation actions:
64. Affirms that the framework for the global goal on adaptation includes the following targets in relation to the dimensions of the iterative adaptation cycle, recognising the need to enhance adaptation action and support: (a) Impact, vulnerability and risk assessment: by 2030 all Parties have conducted up-to-date assessments of climate hazards, climate change impacts and exposure to risks and vulnerabilities and have used the outcomes of these assessments to inform their formulation of national adaptation plans, policy instruments, and planning processes and/or strategies, and by 2027 all Parties have established multi-hazard early warning systems, climate information services for risk reduction and systematic observation to support improved climate-related data, information and services.
Loss and Damage: Potential Linkages on EWEA
“At the start of COP27 in Egypt last year, many people said it wouldn’t be agreed, let alone created in 12 months.” – Mohamed Adow, Director of climate think tank Power Shift Africa, 30 November 2023 on the Loss and Damage Fund.
COP28 marked the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund, a significant achievement accompanied by financial pledges from developed countries. This success is seen as a crucial step in addressing climate change's adverse effects, especially for those least responsible for the crisis, reflecting a commitment to climate justice.
UNDRR and UNOPS will host the Santiago network secretariat, which aims to avert, minimise and address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change. It will focus on providing technical assistance, catalysing collaboration, and facilitating access to resources for comprehensive climate risk management, including early warning and action.
Despite optimism, concerns persist about the adequacy of financial pledges and the World Bank's administration of the Loss and Damage Fund, raising doubts about its effectiveness. Caution has been advised regarding potential financial trade-offs, as allocating funds may impact other global and national priorities such as poverty reduction and humanitarian response, which are needed to build sustainable resilience to climate change. Developing states call for additional funds without diverting resources from existing commitments in Official Development Assistance (ODA) and climate finance.
Noteworthy Early Warning and Early Action Announcements at COP28
Side events focused on or including discussions related to early warning and early action featured prominently in COP28. According to the REAP Partnership’s crowdsourcing of such events, over 100 sessions explicitly discussed early warning and early action, including more than 30 on the Early Warnings for All initiative. This is a significant increase over the previous two COPs, with COP27 hosting around 70 events on this theme, and COP26 around 30.
The Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace was launched by the COP28 Presidency and endorsed by 74 countries and 40 international organisations as a collective commitment to increase investment and actions to drive resilience in countries and communities affected by conflict, fragility, or humanitarian crisis.
It explicitly references the Early Warnings for All initiative, the need for “preparedness and prevention, early warning and anticipatory and early action, and disaster risk finance mechanisms” and a focus on “the exchange of information between countries and regions, institutions and sectors, and sharing data and evidence, including early warning and analysis of climate-related risks”.
The ‘Getting Ahead of Disasters’ Charter was launched by the COP28 Presidency, the UK, Samoa and REAP. Its call for collaborative action was endorsed by 41 countries and organisations, to optimise finance utilisation for risk management and safeguard vulnerable populations in the face of climate-related disasters. The Charter sets the stage for systemic change to allow frontline communities facing the worst of climate change to access resources before the impacts of extreme weather events are felt.
Related to EWS specifically, the Charter aims to link up “finance for adaptation, resilience, risk reduction, early warnings, risk understanding and preparedness with complementary initiatives in early action, response, recovery and reconstruction. For example, efforts to increase multi-hazard early warning systems coverage must be connected to resources so that warnings can be converted into prompt and effective actions that reach communities.”
The 2023 Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems was launched by UNDRR and WMO and analyses the latest data one year into the Early Warnings for All initiative. Its findings reveal that 101 countries have reported having an early warning system - an increase of six countries compared to last year - representing a doubling of coverage since 2015.
The Early Warnings for All Dashboard was launched at the same event. This is to track progress, inform decision-making and measure success in global efforts to ensure that all people on Earth are covered by early warning systems by 2027. WMO also released its Early Warnings for All in Focus: Hazard Monitoring and Forecasting report, presenting the findings from its rapid assessment of the hazard monitoring and forecasting capacity of the 30 EW4All countries.
What Does This Mean for the Future of Early and Anticipatory Action?
Despite the achievement of recognising for the first time that a transition away from fossil fuels is needed, persistent finance and action gaps pose challenges for national-level mitigation and adaptation. Urgent financial commitments, made in the best way possible from developed countries are crucial to realising a future where all nations can thrive despite climate change impacts. On the early and anticipatory action timescale, this means creating better finance streams to get ahead of disasters and build wider climate resilience for communities and nations.
The operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund is, of course, a notable and welcome development, offering potential finance for frontline communities facing the most severe impacts of climate change. The adequacy of the finance provided and transparency of its administration remain a concern. As a community, we recognise and support the urgency for the Loss and Damage Fund to meet the needs of the most at risk, whilst positioning early action as key to mitigate the impact of disasters.
COP28 has provided the global community an opportunity to influence the future management of, and response to, climate-related disasters. This involves optimising a comprehensive risk management strategy that integrates and crosses sectors, from the global level to the local level, addressing local needs and supporting local leadership, across mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage timescales. It necessitates a fundamental re-evaluation of the roles played by various sectors to break down silos in fostering genuine climate resilience. A comprehensive strategy that integrates and encompasses anticipatory action, relief, and response into longer-term measures while tackling the underlying structural issues that make communities vulnerable to climate shocks is urgently needed. In practice, this relies on the humanitarian, development, disaster risk management, and climate actors working together to address structural problems and inequalities to build true climate resilience.
The climate negotiations’ ultimate success will hinge on the collective will and inclusivity of all, highlighting the ongoing need for true collaboration across silos and sectors to synergise our efforts and truly leave no-one behind. We will need thorough scrutiny and commitment to fulfil these huge responsibilities in the face of escalating climate impacts. While COP28 has set the stage for transformative change, sustained resolve to meet the needs of those on the frontline is now more crucial than ever.
*Cartoon by COP Resilience Hub-connected cartoonist, Rohan Chakravarty, summarising the SEEDS (Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society), United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), Insurance Development Forum / Global Risk Modelling Alliance, Sendai Stakeholder Engagement Mechanism (SEM), and Resurgence on behalf of Risk-informed Early Action Partnership (REAP) co-hosted COP28 event, 'From Silos to Synergy: A Dialogue on Universal Access to Risk and Resilience Insight and Tools'.