Understanding the vulnerability of Fiji and other Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to tropical cyclones goes beyond mere data; it's a matter of life and death. In SIDS, where the impact of climate-related disasters can be devastating, access to accurate forecasts is about preparedness and resilience. By leveraging forecast information alongside key vulnerability data, we can proactively get ahead of disasters and protect people, saving lives and safeguarding livelihoods.
Fiji stands as one of the most susceptible nations globally to the ferocity of tropical cyclones, enduring impacts on infrastructure, economy, and lives. Since 1969, a staggering 33 tropical cyclones of Category 1 or higher have encroached within 10 kilometres of Fiji's borders, with 16 of these making landfall. Cyclone Gita, which did not make direct landfall in Fiji, still caused heavy rainfall and flooding. Among the most memorable are Cyclone Winston (2016), the Southern Hemisphere's fiercest on record, Cyclone Yasa (2020), the second strongest to hit Fiji, and Cyclone Harold (2020), each prompting international aid responses, including support from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF).
The warming oceans, a testament to climate change's inexorable march, fuel the intensification and frequency of tropical cyclones, magnifying their catastrophic potential. With this change, Fiji braces itself not only for more frequent and severe cyclones but also for heightened storm surges, deluges, and rising sea levels. The Fijian government's projections, outlined in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), paint a grim picture: by 2050, tropical cyclones and floods could induce losses and damages of over 6.5 per cent Fiji’s GDP annually, plunging more of the population into poverty year after year.
Despite proactive investments in disaster preparedness and resilience, Fiji remains precariously perched at a juncture of climate change, global underinvestment in climate adaptation, and heightened economic vulnerability. Recognising the primary threat of extreme weather events, Fiji's National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) policy single out tropical cyclones as paramount hazards, calling for concerted efforts to fortify the nation's defences. The NAP emphasises community resilience building and enhancing early warning systems (EWS) and disaster response readiness. But this isn’t enough.
Enter anticipatory action (AA): a beacon of hope amidst the compounding risks and vulnerabilities faced by the Fijian population. Developed in support of the Fijian Government and through collaboration with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and other national and regional partners, the Anticipatory Action Framework for Tropical Cyclones in Fiji leverages EWS and advancements in disaster prediction. This enables Fijians to protect their lives and livelihoods before a storm impacts, thus limiting humanitarian fallout. The framework delineates clear triggers for tropical cyclone forecasts and details anticipatory actions fuelled by pre-arranged funding (PAF) managed by CERF and other UN agencies.
Following the Pacific Anticipatory Action Week in March 2023, Fiji was identified as a potential pilot for coordinated anticipatory action, with support from the United Nations and operational partners. This initiative builds on Fiji's existing disaster risk management capacity and resilience efforts, aligning with national policy settings and international frameworks such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Fiji's legal framework (enshrined within the National Disaster Management Act of 1998) provides a solid foundation for disaster resilience. Leading the effort is the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO), orchestrating prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery measures. Fiji's EWS, produced by the Fiji Meteorological Service, guards against impending weather-related hazards. Integrating EWS with national policies and plans, such as the NAP and DRR policy, these systems fortify Fiji's readiness to combat climate crises.
Integrating social protection
In November 2023, the World Food Programme (WFP) collaborated with other United Nations agencies and the Fijian Government to launch the Fiji Anticipatory Action Framework, aimed at safeguarding vulnerable populations from cyclone threats. Building on groundwork laid by OCHA, WFP integrated anticipatory action into Fiji's social protection infrastructure. Leveraging the country's disaster risk management capacities, WFP will ensure rapid, anticipatory support to at-risk communities before disasters, reducing costs and suffering associated with storm-related shocks. The Fiji AA Framework empowers local communities through clear triggers for activation and innovative mechanisms for anticipatory cash assistance, placing them at the forefront of proactive disaster mitigation efforts. All WFP anticipatory cash assistance will be channelled through the existing social protection infrastructure, promoting local ownership. This exemplary model not only demonstrates the effectiveness of anticipatory action but also offers valuable insights for replication and adaptation in other regions facing similar climate-related challenges. This alignment with the 'Getting Ahead of Disasters' Charter and the cross-sectoral leadership from the Fiji Government and WFP further solidify this intervention as a leading enabler in climate resilience. The outcome of the Fourth International Conference on SIDS can provide crucial support and insights for further advancing Fiji's AA initiatives, contributing to resilient prosperity amidst climate challenges.
Anatomy of a trigger activation
The meticulous process of enabling and expediting anticipatory cash transfers mirrors the AA Framework's precision. Upon the readiness trigger forecasting cyclone landfall within five days, preparations ensue, compiling beneficiary lists based on predefined criteria. Simultaneously, financial service providers (FSPs) are put on standby. Confirmation by a subsequent activation trigger, predicting cyclone landfall within three days, prompts the release of contingency funds to FSPs for immediate digital payments to at-risk households, ensuring a 24-hour turnaround. The system is built around a "reimbursement scheme" where the government releases funding it has in its accounts to be reimbursed by WFP with funding from CERF. This synergy between triggers and payments minimises false-alarm risks, optimising resource allocation. The joint efforts by the Government of Fiji, WFP, and CERF are central to the success of this approach.
A visual illustration of the arrangements:
A better approach to finance for disasters
In countries vulnerable to climate change, social protection plays a pivotal role in safeguarding individuals and communities before, during, and after crises. Limited access to social protection exacerbates vulnerabilities. Integrating shock-responsive mechanisms into existing social protection systems offers a better alternative to traditional crisis response by delivering aid faster and facilitating population resilience. This integration underscores the imperative of leveraging existing social protection infrastructure to deliver swift aid efficiently. Diverse methods, from cash transfer programmes to community-based support networks, offer tailored solutions adaptable to diverse national contexts.
This approach to anticipatory action intertwines pre-arranged finance with existing government social protection schemes. In collaboration with WFP and other UN agencies, Fiji pioneers a system where financial aid swiftly reaches vulnerable communities before predicted disasters. Leveraging its contingency funds, the government initiates anticipatory cash transfers, promptly reimbursed by the WFP, ensuring timely aid. This model sets a precedent for anticipatory action, integrating it seamlessly with social protection infrastructure.
Integrating anticipatory action with social protection systems epitomises a stride toward proactive disaster management, furnishing vulnerable communities with pre-emptive support against tropical cyclones and other forecastable climate hazards. The Fiji case study calls for replication, urging similar strategies to be embraced wherever possible, and for actors to foster a collaborative approach to protect the most vulnerable from disasters. Feedback and discourse are instrumental in refining and expanding this innovative approach to other unique situations, from which we can forge a united front against ever-expanding climate risk.
For further information:
- 2024 - Supercharging social protection systems with anticipatory cash: Case study on Fiji’s Anticipatory Action Framework | World Food Programme (wfp.org)
- Fiji Tropical Cyclones - 2023 Anticipatory Action Framework - Fiji | ReliefWeb
- Integrating Anticipatory Action and Social Protection | World Food Programme (wfp.org)