Geographical Scope: Lower Mekong Basin (from the China-Laos border to the Vietnam delta), covering Laos and Cambodia
The Mekong Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (MFFS), operated by the Mekong River Commission’s (MRC) Regional Flood and Drought Management Centre (RFDMC) based in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, stands as a pivotal example of efforts to develop transboundary early warning systems (EWS) and the challenges that the partner agencies have faced in working across borders, sectors and expertise. The EWS is designed for the unique challenges encountered within and across the boundaries of two developing countries susceptible to extreme weather and climate hazards, such as frequent seasonal flooding and flash floods caused by monsoon rains and tropical storms. Established in 2008 and upgraded in 2014 and 2021, the MFFS harnesses the Delft-FEWS platform (developed by Deltares) to generate critical forecasts for water levels and streamflow along the Mekong River for Laos and Cambodia. Floods are a regular occurrence in the Mekong River Basin. While they pose a significant threat to communities lacking adequate preparation, potentially damaging crops and endangering food security and lives, they also serve a crucial role in agriculture and contribute to the renowned productivity of the Mekong's freshwater fisheries. The Mekong River Commission's (MRC) RFDMC aims to mitigate adverse impacts from floods while safeguarding these vital benefits. As part of these efforts, forecasting bulletins are released to present the seasonal situations, and the weekly situation report, in addition to flash flood bulletins when required.
The integration of various data streams lies at the heart of the MFFS, ensuring forecasting skill and reliability. This capability has proven instrumental in advancing flood forecasting along the Mekong River which spans Laos and Cambodia, countries particularly vulnerable to seasonal flooding. Leveraging advanced meteorological inputs and hydrological gauges, the system empowers national agencies to issue localised alerts and advisories, crucial for mitigating risks to lives and infrastructure.
The integration of two of those data streams was updated through the SERVIR-Mekong project led by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) in Bangkok, Thailand. This initiative, supported by Deltares, USAID and NASA, has leveraged satellite data to improve rainfall estimates and forecasts for the MFFS's operations. The synergy between SERVIR, ADPC, and MRC’s forecasting team, in addition to the oversight and coordination provided by the ADPC as a regional authority underscores the importance of international partnerships in advancing transboundary disaster preparedness.
The key stations along the LMB and their respective model application for River Flood Forecasting during the wet season from June to October and River Monitoring during the dry season from November to May are presented in the figure. The hydrograph for each key station is available from the MRC’s River Flood Forecasting: http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/overview.php
The MRC headquarters in Vientiane, Laos, oversees operations across the entire Lower Mekong Basin, downstream from the China-Laos border. In 2008, a large team was coordinated to develop this transboundary EWS, overseen by MRC's forecasting team, who contributed significant time, expertise, and a willingness to collaborate on this system through their own operational updates.
As the frequency of these disasters rises, the demand for real-time information will continue to grow. Using satellite data, the MFFS has enabled near real-time monitoring and forecasting of floods and droughts with greater accuracy. The integration of satellite data into tools that enhance and support locally developed, sustainable systems to tackle the climate crisis can be viewed as an example of enhancing the capacity of developing countries to take ownership and direction of technical solutions. These advancements not only strengthen early warning capabilities but also demonstrate how the system can remain relevant and resilient amidst evolving climate patterns and demographic shifts. The proactive approach of integrating these technologies reflects a commitment to staying ahead of emerging challenges, ensuring the system remains effective in safeguarding vulnerable communities.
Yet, deploying the MFFS in LDCs has encountered challenges. Despite the MRC’s robust technical capacity, turnover within national agencies necessitates continuous training and capacity-building efforts. Securing sustainable funding for technical advancements remains a persistent hurdle, affecting system maintenance and scalability. Additionally, the current modelling framework primarily focuses on the main Mekong branches, leaving upstream flood-prone areas insufficiently covered. Addressing these gaps calls for expanded modelling capabilities and enhanced integration with other forecasting systems, including those for flash floods and seasonal predictions.
The MFFS underscores key lessons in simplicity, automation, and stakeholder collaboration. Streamlining operational processes and automating routine tasks have bolstered its usability in resource-constrained LDC settings. Engaging stakeholders—from local communities to national agencies—has been pivotal in tailoring solutions that meet diverse operational needs and local challenges. This inclusive approach not only fosters system acceptance but also drives continual refinement needed for sustaining efficacy over time.
The success of the MFFS in Laos and Cambodia highlights the transformative impact of integrated data systems and advanced forecasting technologies in mitigating disaster risks. Looking forward, sustained investment in technical capacity, ongoing training, and the integration of cutting-edge technologies will be essential to fill existing gaps and fortify the system’s ability to shield vulnerable populations. By leveraging these insights, similar EWS initiatives can aspire to replicate this success in other hazard-prone regions, fostering greater resilience and sustainability in the face of an uncertain climate future.