Reframing Indigenous and Local Knowledge in Early Warning Systems: A Call to Rethink, Respect and Rebalance

Reframing Indigenous and Local Knowledge in Early Warning Systems: A Call to Rethink, Respect and Rebalance

The advancement of early warning systems is hindered by a complex array of challenges that undermine inclusivity, efficacy, and responsiveness. Neglecting tailored approaches needed for the most vulnerable and the lack of a systematic people-centred strategy weaken the overall impact of EWS. Lack of knowledge on how to coordinate across different timescales, and on relevant formal and informal datasets for EWS impede the effectiveness of warnings. Addressing these challenges is crucial for fostering resilient and responsive systems that meet the diverse needs of communities.  

In 2024, the REAP Early Warning Initiatives Working Group convened experts to help frame these issues. Indigenous knowledge, in particular, was identified as an under-utilized resource in modern EWS design. When referring to Indigenous, Traditional, and Local Knowledge (ILK) in early warning systems (EWS), the dominant narrative often positions this knowledge as a set of indicators that can be translated into data points—whether it’s bird migrations, unusual fruiting, or wind patterns. But ILK is not only a bundle of indicators waiting to be interpreted by scientists. It’s a way of knowing, of being in relationship with the environment, of understanding change through generations of lived experience and storytelling. For this reflection, the question wasn’t so much “How can ILK be integrated into EWS?”, but rather “What does it mean to build EWS that are shaped by the indigenous and local knowledge of people?”

What Do We Mean by Indigenous, Traditional and Local Knowledge—and Why Does It Matter?

• Indigenous Knowledge (IK) refers to place-based understandings built over generations through cultural practices, spiritual traditions, and lived observation of the environment by Indigenous communities.
• Traditional Knowledge (TK) may include long-standing practices from both Indigenous and non-Indigenous groups, often passed intergenerationally.
• Local Knowledge (LK) tends to be more contemporary, rooted in the everyday experience of specific communities.

These knowledge systems are deeply contextual and often holistic. They don’t just indicate risks—they reflect how communities relate to risk, the land, and to one another. For early warnings to be truly “people-centred,” ILK must be recognised as more than supplementary data, but as a foundation for understanding, communicating, and acting on risk.

Case Studies: ILK in Action—Benefits, Barriers and Breakthroughs

Zimbabwe – Forecast-Based Finance Grounded in Indigenous Climate Services (WFP)

A national study by WFP in Zimbabwe found 82% of people rely on Indigenous Climate Services (ICS), using indicators like fruiting trees, insect behaviour, wind direction, and spiritual guidance. However, challenges include fuzziness in interpreting these signs and difficulties in determining timing.

The study called for:

• Integration of ICS into Anticipatory Action (AA) systems;
• Longitudinal studies to validate ICS;
• Manuals and national databases for sharing knowledge;
• Platforms for local-to-district knowledge exchange.

Crucially, it highlights the need for community-led forecasting to be recognised as legitimate—and funded—knowledge in its own right.

Tanzania – Community Water Watch with Bus Drivers (Deltares)

In Dar es Salaam, Deltares supported community-driven observations of rainfall and flood risks, tapping into everyday experiences like when and where bus drivers encounter flooded roads. This grassroots knowledge helped fill data gaps in flood models—a vital contribution in an environment where scientific forecasts alone fall short. It’s a reminder that EWS aren’t just about satellites and models—it’s also about how communities understand and are directly affected ​by nuances in their environments.

Uganda and Mali – Feedback Loops and WhatsApp Forecasting (Netherlands Red Cross / 510)

In Uganda, the Netherlands Red Cross and the 510 centre used tools like Kobo Toolbox and WhatsApp to map local observations and embed them in trigger design for anticipatory action. Collaborative governance was key. Power imbalances were acknowledged, local language used, and local decision-making processes centred. This isn't "including" ILK—this is co-producing the system.

South Africa – Community Marshals as Risk Intermediaries (Community Risk Management)

In South Africa, the organisation Community Risk Management trains local marshals to monitor traditional indicators, update risk profiles, disseminate warnings, and respond to disasters. These marshals act as trusted intermediaries, bridging formal systems and local realities. It’s an example of “system stitching”—connecting top-down alerts with bottom-up wisdom​.

Zimbabwe – CAFOD’s Risk Mapping with Indigenous and Scientific Forecasts

CAFOD’s work in Binga, Zimbabwe illustrates the value of blending ILK and science. Communities contribute signs from trees, birds, and rainfall memory, while scientists offer probabilistic models. Each alone is partial. Together, they create a fuller picture—though challenges remain in timing, intergenerational knowledge loss, and standardisation.

Malawi – Contextualising Drought Forecasts with Local Insight

Research from Malawi shows that combining ILK with seasonal forecasts improves both relevance and trust of early warning alerts. Community elders pointed to early signs of drought, like grass dying unusually early, while scientists explained shifting rainfall zones. Together, they created forecasts that communities actually use​.

From Indicators to Worldviews: What ILK Really Offers

ILK is not just about predicting weather. It includes:

• Cultural protocols for response—like ceremonies that determine safe planting times.
• Governance practices—where elders or spiritual leaders act as warning authorities.
• Ecological memory—oral histories of past hazards that guide community planning.
• Community-rooted communication—songs, symbols, rituals, or storytelling.

Therefore, recommendations focused on "including" ILK often miss the point - it’s about rebalancing knowledge systems, addressing power asymmetries, and co-creating frameworks where ILK sets the foundation for warning design.

What’s Standing in the Way?

Several structural challenges remain:

• Power hierarchies between scientific institutions and local communities often marginalise ILK or tokenize it.
• Climate change is shifting the natural indicators ILK depends on—just as it’s challenging meteorological reliability.
• Language barriers and poor accessibility (especially for displaced or disabled populations) block effective ILK communication.
• Lack of investment in ILK documentation, transmission and institutional integration.

What Needs to Change?

To truly elevate ILK in Early Warning Systems, the global community must:

1. Build equitable partnerships. Create space for ILK holders not as informants but as co-designers and decision-makers.
2. Shift funding structures. Resource ILK as core infrastructure, not as side projects or “innovations.”
3. Acknowledge uncertainty. Both science and ILK contain uncertainty. Communities can handle this—if treated as intelligent actors, not passive recipients.
4. Bridge knowledge systems. Use participatory methods, glossaries, and hybrid forecasts to enable dialogue (not only translation) between systems.
5. Respect local autonomy. Don’t extract knowledge—support community stewardship, documentation (on their terms), and consent.
6. Institutionalise inclusion. National disaster policies, regional climate outlook forums, and donor criteria should formally acknowledge the complementary value of ILK. For instance, coordination mechanisms could help compare forecasts between scientists and local actors.

Final Thoughts: Plural Systems Save Lives

The future of early warning isn’t one system. It’s many. It’s scientific forecasts and spiritual signs. Satellites and elders. Models and memory. Risk alerts that come via app, word of mouth, or indirectly through the behaviour of nesting birds.

Early warning systems will only truly serve those most at risk when they are shaped by—not just inclusive of—the communities they are meant to protect. And that means rethinking not just how we forecast, but who we listen to when the wind begins to shift.